# Prop-03 — 48h Cosmology Watch List

**Date:** 2026-09-05 ~00:10 America/New_York  
**Window:** new arXiv abs since ~2026-09-03 00:00 UTC (~48h)  
**Track:** Prop-03 Hubble / EDE / public Planck–DESI–SN likelihoods  
**Rule:** New abs only; real URLs; no fabrication. Flag Cobaya/DESI/EDE priority changes.

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## Priority flags (Cobaya / DESI / EDE)

| Flag | Paper | Change? |
|------|-------|---------|
| **P1** | `2609.04112` Lagos & Wolf — NMC evolving DE + GW/EM siren distances | **Yes — expand Cobaya theory targets** beyond axion-EDE: NMC scalar-tensor with \(\alpha_M(z)\) vs DESI-favored DE; add standard-siren likelihood path. |
| **P2** | `2609.04192` Euclid prep — halo profiles in dynamical DE / \(f(R)\) / neutrinos | **Soft yes** — structure-growth observable for dynamical DE; not a BAO likelihood swap, but informs whether DESI \(w(z)\) models need halo-shape forecasts. |
| **P3** | `2609.03537` Shark SAM — bright \(z>10\) galaxies without exotic cosmology | **Yes — damp EDE+JWST narratives** — weakens “need EDE/JWST combo to fix high-z galaxies” unless hydro confirms; keep EDE driven by \(H_0\)/BAO not JWST alone. |
| **P4** | `2609.04133` Moving lens CMB secondary | Watch only — velocity-field probe; no immediate Cobaya BAO/CMB swap. |
| — | LZ / higgsino inelastic DM cluster (`2609.04175` etc.) | **No** Prop-03 Cobaya change (particle DM, not expansion history). |

**No new EDE-named paper in strict 48h window.** Near-window (Sep 2) DESI/EDE items already in `lit-interim-continuous.md` remain the Cobaya reproduction queue (`2609.03062`, cleared `2608.28260`, `2608.19432`, stack `2505.08051`).

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## Watch list (ranked, new abs ≤48h)

### 1. Consistency between cosmological and standard siren observations in evolving dark energy
- **arXiv:** [2609.04112](https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.04112) · 2026-09-03 · Lagos, Wolf  
- **Why watch:** Ties DESI-like time-varying DE to NMC → GW friction \(\alpha_M(z)\) and GW vs EM luminosity distances.  
- **Cobaya/DESI/EDE impact:** **Priority change** — Simulation Engineer should add NMC/siren observable path alongside AxiCLASS/class_ede EDE. Do not drop EDE; **widen** theory menu.  
- **Falsify / next:** Quantitative \(\alpha_M(z)\) vs LISA/ET forecasts; consistency with DESI \(w_0w_a\) posteriors.

### 2. Euclid preparation. The shape of halo profiles in ΛCDM and non-standard cosmologies
- **arXiv:** [2609.04192](https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.04192) · 2026-09-03 · Euclid Collaboration (Pizzuti et al.)  
- **Why watch:** Halo shape/profile imprint of dynamical DE, \(f(R)\), massive neutrinos (DUSTGRAIN-PF, DEMNUni).  
- **Impact:** Medium — growth/geometry cross-check for DESI dynamical DE; not a likelihood replacement.  
- **Next:** Map which DE parameterizations Euclid halo shapes can distinguish vs BAO-only.

### 3. Bright star-forming galaxies naturally forming at z>10 in the Shark semi-analytic model
- **arXiv:** [2609.03537](https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.03537) · 2026-09-03 · Lagos, Chandro-Gomez, Power, Robotham  
- **Why watch:** JWST bright high-z population reproducible in ΛCDM SAM with SF/feedback updates.  
- **Impact:** **Lowers weight of JWST as EDE motivator**; keep Prop-03 driven by CMB+BAO+\(H_0\).  
- **Next:** Track hydro confirmation; avoid stacking JWST+EDE as primary justification.

### 4. The moving lens effect: analytical modelling and foreground suppression
- **arXiv:** [2609.04133](https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.04133) · 2026-09-03 · Wayland, Alonso, Coulton  
- **Why watch:** CMB secondary × galaxy momentum → large-scale velocities.  
- **Impact:** Low immediate Cobaya priority; future cross-corr likelihood candidate.  

### 5. Prospects for probing dark matter with filamentary 21cm emission
- **arXiv:** [2609.03649](https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.03649) · 2026-09-03 · Liu et al.  
- **Why watch:** WDM vs CDM via filaments — adjacent cosmology, not DE/\(H_0\).  
- **Impact:** None for EDE/DESI BAO stack.

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## Edge of window (~50–72h) — already tracked; still Cobaya-critical

Not counted as new 48h abs, but **do not deprioritize**:

| id | Title cue | Note |
|----|-----------|------|
| [2609.03062](https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.03062) | Dark-sector interactions × dynamical DE + DESI DR2 | Joint interacting-\(w_0w_a\) — Cobaya model extension |
| [2609.03089](https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.03089) | TDCOSMO XXIX lens kinematics | Independent \(H_0\) rung |
| [2609.03012](https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.03012) | CMB phase coherence / single-field inflation | Prior hygiene for CMB |
| [2608.28260](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.28260) | GPAge mid-time (CLEARED) | Cite OK; Cobaya reproduction required before “tension resolved” language |
| [2608.19432](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.19432) | Does EDE absorb DESI late dynamics? | EDE+CPL combined analysis |

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## Recommended Cobaya priority order (updated)

1. Reproduce baseline: Planck (+ACT cut as needed) + `bao.desi_dr2` + Pantheon-plus under ΛCDM / axion-EDE (`2505.08051` methods).  
2. Add **interacting + \(w_0w_a\)** (`2609.03062`).  
3. Prototype **NMC / \(\alpha_M\)** siren consistency (`2609.04112`) — even if likelihood stubbed.  
4. GPAge mid-time comparator (`2608.28260`) — no “resolved” wording until chains exist.  
5. Keep JWST-high-z **out** of primary EDE justification pending Shark/hydro debate (`2609.03537`).

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## Sources
- arXiv API `cat:astro-ph.CO` sortBy=submittedDate (fetched 2026-09-05)  
- Abs URLs above (live arXiv)  
- Companion: `lit-interim-continuous.md`, `lit-tracks-top3.md`